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Lars Christiansen ir vėl teisus (arba Kaip skatinti Lietuvos ekonomiką)

Ekonomikos skatinimas - šiandien ypač aktuali tema, kuri, manau, turėtų rūpėti ne vien ūkio ir finansų ministrams. Taigi, leisiu sau pasidalinti mintimis kaip tai reikia daryti.

Lars Christansen, priminsiu, yra Danske Bank analitikas iš Kopenhagos, kuris iki šiol taikliausiai atspėdavo didžiuosius ekonomikos pokyčius. Jis mėgiamas dėl prognozių taiklumo ir žodžių aštrumo. Dažnai ir ignoruojamas dėl tų pačių žodžių aštrumo.

Šiandien paskaičiau, kad jis pasakė dar vieną „šventvagišką“ dalyką: skatinti ekonomiką stimulų planais yra ta pats, kas gerti butelį degtinės pagirioms.

Skamba drastiškai, tačiau tai visiška tiesa, jei kalbėsime apie papildomų pinigų įliejimą į rinką. Austrų ekonomikos verslo ciklų teorija, už kurią Friedrich Hayek prieš tris dešimtmečius gavo Nobelio premiją, tai aiškiai parodo.

Klaidingai suvokta ekonomikos krizė – klaidingas būdas iš jos išlipti

Pagrindinis atspirties taškas Austrų verslo ciklų teorijai yra tas, kad turtas (kapitalinės gėrybės) ir pinigai nėra tas pats. Padidinta pinigų pasiūla per centrinius bankus ir komercinių bankų multiplikatorių padidina pinigų, tačiau negali padidinti kapitalinių gėrybių.

Esmė ta, kad ekonomikos ciklų problema pasireiškia ne nuosmukio, o pakilimo metu. Būtent tuomet dirbtinai išdidinta pinigų masė daugelį verslininkų (nekalbant apie valdžią) yra nuvedusi klystkeliais. Visi investuoja per daug ir ne ten, kur reikia, nes klaidingai įsivaizduoja esą turtingesni nei iš tikro.

Ekonomikos nuosmukis yra korekcija – kai vėl pradedama gyventi pagal tai, kiek turi gėrybių.

Dirbtinis pakilimas nebūtų problema, jei tai nebūtų susiję su išteklių švaistymu. Pavyzdžiui, jei plytų turi tik trims namams, o pradėjai statyti penkis, natūralu, kad kažkur užstrigsi.

Kuo anksčiau sustosi, tuo bus mažiau iššvaistyta laiko ir gėrybių. Gal dar netgi sugebėsi pasistatyti tris nors ir mažesnius namus, arba bent du tokius, kokie planuoti. Jei nesustosi laiku, gali atsitikti taip, kad teturėsi penkis griuvėsius.

Ekonomikos skatinimas per papildomų pinigų gamybą yra ne kas kita kaip bandymas visiems įteigti, kad galima pastatyti penkis namus, nors prieš tai ką tik buvo sustota, įsivertinta situacija ir nuspręsta, kad plytų viskam neužteks.

Kaip Lietuvai skatinti ekonomiką

Ačiū Dievui Lietuva negali taikyti tipinio finansinio stimulo plano ekonomikai gaivinti, nes tam būtinas centrinis bankas, nevaržomas valiutų valdybos apribojimų.

Tai reiškia, kad mes esame priversti gyventi pagal kišenę šiandien ir mažiau turime galimybių užsipilti sau akis ekonominiais stimulais arba buteliu degtinės, kaip sako Lars Christiansen.

Tačiau negalima ignoruoti, kad pinigai šiandien į ekonomiką įliejami kitose pasaulio ir Europos vietose. Deje, tai ne į naudą Lietuvai, nes neigiamas tokio įliejimo efektas tenka kažkiek ir mums, o trumpalaikis teigiamas efektas mus pasiekia tik labai per aplink.

Atsižvelgiant į tai yra visiškai pagrįsta šiandien stengtis panaudoti ES paramą Lietuvai. Tai nekenkia lito stabilumui, ir nors iškreipia pinigų nešamą informaciją rinkoje, tačiau leidžia pirmiems gauti trumpalaikę tokio stimulo naudą bei amortizuoti esamą kritimą. Kaip geriau panaudoti šiuos pinigus – atskira tema.

Kitas dalykas, kuris iš tikrųjų yra svarbiausias, ir į ką atkreipia dėmesį Lars Christiansen - tai struktūrinis ir sisteminis požiūris, konkurencingumo didinimas.

Šia prasme ekonomika geriausiai būtų skatinama (vedama link konkurencingumo) visų pirma valdžios sektoriui neleidžiant daugiau lėšų nei surenkama mokesčių. Tai, beje, padidintų ir privataus sektoriaus skolinimosi galimybes.

Taip pat būtina panaikinti reguliacinius barjerus konkurencingumui: darbo santykių suvaržymų naikinimas, teritorijų planavimo džiunglių išravėjimas, licencijavimo ir kontroliuojančių institucijų įtakos mažinimas ir kt.

Trečia, būtina efektyvinti viešojo sektoriaus sritį. Geriausia jį privatizuojant, kur tik tai įmanoma (šia prasme sveikinu Vilniaus miesto valdančiosios koalicijos iniciatyvas).

Jei ne – bent įleidžiant konkurenciją (dar kartą pagarba Gintarui Steponavičiui už aukštojo mokslo reformą).

Jei nesame pasiruošę šiems žingsniams, svarbu bent esamo viešojo sektoriaus efektyvinimas per mažiau biurokratines procedūras (pavyzdžiui, kitą savaitę pateiksiu projektus dėl juridinių asmenų registravimo, Civilinio proceso supaprastinimo) ar privačių operatorių įsileidimą (kad ir į Kalėjimus, kam jau pritarė Vyriausybė).

Džiaugiuosi, kad Lietuvoje galvojama apie tokį ekonomikos skatinimą. Gaila tik, kad kartais per daug užsižaidžiama galvojant apie finansinius stimulus. Tuo ypač pasižymi šiandienos opozicija.

Netiksliai sufokusavus savo dėmesį, atitinkamai ir gauname rezultatą: priešinamasi ir būtinam biudžeto apkarpymui (nes nebus „stimulo“), ir darbo santykių dereguliavimui (nors tai ir yra esminis stimulas).

P.S. Dar šiek tiek teorijos

Kodėl Lars Christiansen teisus? Ne tik dėl to, kad yra protingas ir atidžiai seka ekonominę informaciją.

Kiek teko bendrauti su juo ir su kitais ekonomikos analitikais – jis vienintelis detaliai ir giliai yra susipažinęs ir remiasi Austrų ekonomikos mokyklos analize. Hayek, Mises, Rothbard ir kitus šios krypties autorius daugelis ekonomikos žvaigždžių Lietuvoje žino geriausiu atveju pagal pavardes. Jis gi ne tik perskaitęs, bet ir gerai išanalizavęs.

Šia prasme labai laiku pasirodė Lietuvos laisvosios rinkos instituto knyga apie pinigus ir verslo ciklus, kurią visiems rekomenduočiau.

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komentarai (302) | “Lars Christiansen ir vėl teisus (arba Kaip skatinti Lietuvos ekonomiką)”

  1.   anarchistas rašo:

    Dar neskaičiau knygos, tai tiesiog ją varčiųsių/skaičiusių noriu paklausiu:
    ar austrų pinigų teorija vis dar pinigus traktuoja kaip paklausiausią prekę, ar jau pripažįsta, kad pinigai yra kreditas? Nuo atsakymo priklauso verslo ciklų aiškinimas.

  2.   Gintaras rašo:

    Smagu skaityti tokius straipsnius. Aš noriu pakalbėti apie viešąjį sektorių. Manau, kad šiandieną viešasis sektorius nepasirengęs konkuruoti su privačiu, vien dėl paprasčiausios priežasties-labai daug hierarchinio pavldumo kliudžių arba kaip labai gerai pasakė A.Siparienė iš TMO “popierinių sienų” statymo. Norint pritaikyti naujovę turi praeiti daugybę derinimų, įvairiausių komisijų, darbo grupių ir pan., kad galėtum įdiegti naujovę. Tačiau egzistuoja ir dar vienas dalykas-subjetyvus faktorius, t.y. vadovas nelabai linęs rizikuoti, nes nemato tikslingo rezultato, premijos, karjeros ir t.t. jeigu kalbant apie šiandienos krizę galima pasakyti, kad verslininkai išdūrė valstybė ir labai paprastai. Krizės pradžioje prasidėjo privačių bendrovių bankrotai arba restruktorizacijos, pradėjo atleisti darbuotojus, kurie stojo į darbo biržas ir gaudavo tam tikrą laiką išmokas, kurios buvo ne ką mažesnės negu ankstesniąjame darbe. Taigi birža moka pinigus, o verslas juokiasi, kaip jie gražiai išlindo, o Sodra kaip sėda į gilyn taip sėda. Gilesnės analizės tingisi rašyti. šiai dienai vėl triukas, kas trukdo žmogui esančiam biržoje pasakyti eik šluoti gatvių arba gausi tik 100 lt ir mirk iš bado. Sakysite negalima, įstatymai ir pan. Visa tai niekis, eitų tie žmonės ir dirbtų, niekur nedingtų. Gal būt matant tai reikėjo sanuoti įmones, kad tik jie neatleistų darbuotojų. t.y. neužmestu ant Sodros dar vienos malkos. Va ir visa esmė, kaip viešasis sektorius tingiai reaguoja ir pritaiko praktiniame gyvenime naujoves. Žodžiu atsibodo rašyti.

  3.   Westas rašo:

    O LLRI savam stiliui. Viena iš didžiausių priežasčių, kodėl mes esam taip giliai š… tai būtent LLRI ir jų į Lietuvą atvestas Valiutų valdybos modelis bei Lietuvos centrinio banko neveiksnumas.

    Ir bendrai, kas būna po privatizacijų Lietuvoje, tai mes puikiai žinome :) Juk verslas veikia labai jau efektyviai - Teo Lt, VST, Lietuvos dujos, Litesko, Panevežio energija ir t.t. Vat čia tai etalonai, taip ir toliau dar juk yra Lietuvos geležinkeliai, Klaipedos nafta, Pastas, RST, Lietuvos Energija….

  4.   Giedrius rašo:

    “ar austrų pinigų teorija vis dar pinigus traktuoja kaip paklausiausią prekę, ar jau pripažįsta, kad pinigai yra kreditas? Nuo atsakymo priklauso verslo ciklų aiškinimas.”

    Nuo atsakymo verslo ciklų aiškinimas nepriklauso, kadangi kalbant apie pinigų kiekio pasikeitimo poveikį ekonomikai nėra jokio skirtumo ar pinigai yra paklausiausia prekė, ar paskolos sutartys, ar visiškai niekuo nepadengti legal tender galias turintys fiat money. Pinigų kiekiui pasikeitus ne dėl rinkos dalyvių poreikių pasikeitimo, o dėl centro komiteto intervencijos, visada vyks tokie patys procesai, kuriuos Austrų ekonomikos teorija ir yra teisingai aprašiusi.

  5.   Gediminas rašo:

    Austrų ekonomikos teorija teigia pinigus esant preke, bent jau taip turėtų būti. O jau paklausa - kitas dalykas. Kai kurie pinigai kartais visai netenka paklausos. Ką dabar teigia naujausi austrų ekonominės teorijos pasekėjai, nežinau, bet šią knygą perskaičiau su dideliu susidomėjimu. Reikės giliau pasidomėti šia teorija.

  6.   Remigijus Šimašius rašo:

    “ar austrų pinigų teorija vis dar pinigus traktuoja kaip paklausiausią prekę, ar jau pripažįsta, kad pinigai yra kreditas?”

    Austrų ekonomika nuo 1922 metų (kiek atsimenu tada išleistas Mises “Pinigų ir kredito teorija”) teigia, kas pinigais istoriškai tampa likvidžiausia (nemanau, kad tai yra tapatu paklausiausiai) prekei, kuri atitinka tam tikrus požymius, kurių š pinigų reikalauja rinkos dalyviai. Kita vertus, teorija nuo pat pradžių tik ir kalba apie kredito ekspansiją kaip prblemą, kuri sukelia neadekvačius verslo ciklus.

    Taigi, austrų teorija ne “jau pripažįsta”, o šis pripažinimas kaip tik ir prasidėjo nuo austrų teorijos. Klausimas ar kitos teorijos tai jau pripažįsta.

  7.   Ruta rašo:

    Lars-o disertacijos tema - austru verslo ciklu teorija.

  8.   Sarunas rašo:

    Larsas man pralošė lažybas - 2007 lapkritį jis sakė, kad 2008 lapkritį LTL bus devalvuotas. Jei ne, jis išgers stiklinę Žalgirio trauktinės. Bet greičiausiai neatsimena :)

    O su savo Q3 GDP prognoze kiek paskubėjo.

  9.   anarchistas rašo:

    Šarūnui: mielai įkalčiau tą stiklinę už Larsą. Aš prognozavau, kad Lietuvos laukia bankrotas, ir minėjau per ankstyvas datas.

    Iki šiol visiems draugams ir artimiems rekomenduoju nelaikyti indėlių lietuviškuose komerciniuose bankuose, paskutinįsyk tai dariau šiandien.

  10.   anarchistas rašo:

    Visiems diskusijos dalyviams:

    Galime diskuruoti apie pačias ekonomines teorijas, bet įdomiau - apie jų šalininkų siūlymus.

    Neo-keynesistas Stephen Keen:

    This is why I propose a far more radical policy to deal with the crisis than the government stimulus package that Australia and other OECD nations have followed to date. These policies are attempting to address a crisis caused by irresponsible private lending, yet they involve continuing to respect this debt. They attempt to counteract private deleveraging by running up public debt instead. And they drastically underestimate the impact of deleveraging: rather than achieving a return to growth by 2010, these policies alone are likely to result in zero or sub-zero growth for most of the next decade.

    That private debt does not deserve respect. It was irresponsibly lent in the first place, and the financial institutions that lent it should pay the price–not the public nor the public purse–via deliberate debt reduction. This of course would bankrupt those financial institutions, but as should be obvious from the US experience, these institutions are effectively bankrupt already.

    (Argumentai galioja ir Lietuvai.)

    LLRI:

    Įstatymo priėmimas ir fizinių asmenų bankroto įteisinimas turėtų neigiamų pasekmių bendrai ekonominei padėčiai, iškreiptų racionalų ekonominį elgesį, didintų skolinimo rizikingumą ir todėl potencialiai paslaugų kainą bei skatintų piktnaudžiavimą bankrotu. Fizinių asmenų bankroto instituto įteisinimas prisidėtų prie netinkamų žmonių lūkesčių formavimo ir žmonės būtų neakivaizdžiai skatinami priimti rizikingesnius sprendimus. Motyvų įteisinti fizinių asmenų bankrotą nepakanka. Dalį fizinių asmenų bankrotui keliamų tikslų galima pasiekti kitomis priemonėmis (ribotos atsakomybės juridinio asmens institutas). Dėl šių priežasčių tikslinga nepritarti Įstatymo projektui bei atsisakyti bet kokio fizinių asmenų bankroto instituto įteisinimo.

    LLRI juk nėra kokia bankų viešųjų ryšių agentūra?

    Ar teisingai traktuoju, kad neo-keynesistai siūlo kredito burbulo pasekmes vertinti kaip bendros bankų ir skolininkų klaidos rezultatą, o LLRI - kaip neatsakingo skolininkų elgesio pasekmę?

    Nuo to juk priklauso atsakomybės pasidalijimas.
    LLRI juk vadovaujasi ne kokiais pragmatiniais interesais, o austrų ekonomine teorija?

    Klausimas Remigijui:

    teorija nuo pat pradžių tik ir kalba apie kredito ekspansiją kaip problemą

    Tik skolininkų ir mokesčių mokėtojų problemą?

    Aš pats savo poziciją suformulavau čia, ir kol kas nerandu įtikinamų argumentų prieš. Nemanau, kad pinigų/kredito/pasitikėjimo ekspansijos reguliavimas yra valstybės kompetencijoje, nemanau, kad nuostolių bankams kompensavimas yra mokesčių mokėtojų pareiga, o manau, kad natūralus kredito ekspansijos saugiklis turi būti įkeičiamų aktyvų vertės svyravimo rizika.
    (Rizika, apie kurią pirmiausiai turi mąstyti kreditoriai/bankai).

    Ar ką nors iš šios diskusijos dalyvių žavi perspektyva gyventi valstybės reguliuojamos kredito rizikos/ekspansijos pasaulyje?

  11.   anarchistas rašo:

    Atsiprašau, paskutinė citata - ne citata, o matyt mano html klaida. Praleidau uždarymo tag’as po pirmos pastraipos-citatos.

    Jei kas ją pataisytų, šį mano komentarą irgi prašyčiau trinti.

  12.   Tadas rašo:

    Jei kam butu idomu, ka sviezesni ekonomikos Nobelio laureatai mano “vieninteli teisinga” austriska poziuri i verslo ciklus:

    The Hangover Theory
    Are recessions the inevitable payback for good times?

    By Paul Krugman

    A few weeks ago, a journalist devoted a substantial part of a profile
    of yours truly to my failure to pay due attention to the “Austrian
    theory” of the business cycle—a theory that I regard as being about as
    worthy of serious study as the phlogiston theory of fire. Oh well.
    …>>

    http://www.slate.com/id/9593

  13.   Remigijus Šimašius rašo:

    Tadai,

    tai tik dar kartą parodo, koks nekompetetingas, švelniai tariant, yra Krugman. Ir jis, deja, ne vienintelis toks. Tadai, žinau, kad surastum kažką panašaus ir Stiglitz pasisakymuose…

    Labai būna keista ir liūdna, kaip pritrūkus argumentų atsigręžiama į “argumentus”, kad negali tik vienas požiūris būti teisingas, arba, kad tas ar anas, vat, mano priešingai (todėl, suprask, tavo teiinys yra neteisingas).

    Beje, kam įdomu apie Nobelio premijas ekonomikoje ir jų adekvatumą - gana įspūdinga yra to paties Hayek kalba gaunant premiją.

  14.   Tadas rašo:

    Remigijau,

    Jei nekompetetingu vadinat Krugmana, Clark Medal laimetoja ir vieno prestiziskiausiu pasauly universitetu ekonomikos profesoriu, tai kas yra kompetetingas kalbet apie ekonomine tematika apskritai? Tik LLRI ekspertai? Nezinau, kaip kitiems, man toks ekonomikos mokslo monopolizavimas ir centralizavimas ne prie sirdies.

    Stiglitza, be kita ko ir Pontifical Academy of Social Sciences nari ir labiausiai cituojama ekonomista pasauly, skaitau su ne menkesniu malonumu nei Hayeka. Aisku, skaitydamas puikîai suvokiu, kuri knyga kada ir apie koki pasauli parasyta.

    Prie progos dar parasysiu apie “korekcijas”.

  15.   www.nematomaranka.lt - 123 rašo:

    Krugmanas gavo ir Nobelio premija už prekybos teoriją ir masto ekonomijos teoriją, ir su jo pasiekimais sunku ginčytis.

    Tačiau visais kitais klausimais Krugmanas tėra rėkiantis laikraštinis socialistas, norintis krizę išnaudoti socializmo plėtrai.

  16.   Tadas rašo:

    Nematoma ranka,

    1. Krugmanas yra ekonomikos profesorius U Princetone. Jei tai kam nors nepakankamai sako apie jo kvalifikacija, mazai kas tokiam bepades.
    2. Krugmanas reguliariai raso apie ekonomika kieciausiam pasauly dienrasciui. Bent jau tikintiems nematoma rinkos ranka tai sioks toks zenklas apie jo verte ir kokybe.
    3. Ir cia be komentaru: “Professor Paul R. Krugman of the Department of Economics has received the prestigious John Bates Clark Medal, given biannually by the American Economic Association to the economist under 40 who has made the most important contributions to economics.” http://web.mit.edu/newsoffice/1992/krugman-0304.html
    4. The Economist priskiria ji prie itakingiausiu ir geriausiu pasaulio ekonomistu.

    Trumpai: Linkiu mums daugiau tokiu “laikrastiniu reksniu” kaip Krugmanas.

  17.   anarchistas rašo:

    Krugmanas:

    Latvia is the new Argentina (slightly wonkish)
    http://krugman.blogs.nytimes.com/2008/12/23/latvia-is-the-new-argentina-slightly-wonkish/

    Liečia visus devalvacijos nenorinčius (ir mus tame tarpe).

  18.   Giedrius rašo:

    “Trumpai: Linkiu mums daugiau tokiu “laikrastiniu reksniu” kaip Krugmanas.”

    To linkėk ne visiems mums, o tik jums, t.y. tiems, kuriems argument from authority, nesvarbu koks absurdiškas jis bebūtų, yra pagrindinis įrankis rasti tiesą.

  19.   anarchistas rašo:

    Diskusija degraduoja į Krugman’o asmenybę (pats prie to prisidėjau, sorry).

    Tado įdėta slate.com nuoroda nusipelno rimtesnio atsakymo.

  20.   Giedrius rašo:

    “[Recessions] can and should be fought, not with austerity but with liberality—with policies that encourage people to spend more, not less”

    Ką rimto galima atsakyti į tokius kliedesius? Mol jei staiga supratai, kad neturi ko sėti, nes prieš tai paklausęs analogiško idiotiškumo patarimų, o jei visai tiksliai - dėl tokio idiotizmo suenforsinimo tau jėga, suvalgei beveik visus pasėlius, tai ant smūgio sukramtyk ir tai kas liko ir viskas bus gerai?

  21.   Tadas rašo:

    Anarchiste,

    As irgi manau, kad Slate nuoroda nusipelno rimtesnio atsakymo. Ir butent todel, kad man jis idomus, ja ir idejau. Bet vietoj to sulaukiau tusciu ir musu provincialu nepilnavertiskuma demonstruojanciu ad hominem ataku neabejotinai uz mus visus cia diskutuojancius n-kartu kvalifikuotesnio ekonomisto Krugmano (dar prilipdant ir Stiglitza) atzvilgiu. Speju, todel, kad argumentai, kitos nuomones ir pagarbi diskusija cia mazai ka domina.

    Giedriau,

    Nesupratau, is kur pasidaret ta keista isvada del “authority”. Ministras pacitavo kelias authorities, as pacitavau dar viena. Kad tai staiga tapo problema keista ir man paciam. Siulyciau grizt prie temos. Aisku, pravartu butu nepamirst, kad hayeku ir krugmanu tarp cia diskutuojanciu elementariai nera (ir greiciausiai nebus).

  22.   anarchistas rašo:

    Aš taip prieštaraučiau Krugman’ui:

    Nėra “ekonomikos”. Neegzistuoja “BVP”. T.y. nėra dalyko, kuris “nebūtinai” turi smukti, verslo ciklui apsigręžus.

    Yra socialinės garantijos - tai, ką visuomenė garantuoja visiems ‘kvalifikuotiems darbininkams’, nukentėjusiems nuo verslo ciklo, o gal ir visiems žmonėms.

    Gana nedidelės garantijos. Deja, deja, nėra atsakovo, kuris privalėtų/galėtų visiems užtikrinti tolygiai gerą gyvenimą, neapvogdamas (ar bent neatsiklausęs leidimo iš) visų kitų.

    Nebent tai būtų nuomone manipuliuojanti, todėl resursus siurbianti valdžios grupė. Dabar taip, deja, ir yra. Tai nėra gerai. Tai rizikinga, nes išskyrus žmogiškuosius, visi kiti resursai resursai baigtiniai.

    Krugmanas nekvestionuoja pinigų/valdžios sistemos.


    Matai, esu beveik ‘austras’.

  23.   Tadas rašo:

    Anarchiste,

    “Krugmanas nekvestionuoja pinigų/valdžios sistemos.”

    Taip, panasu, kad Krugmanas yra konservatyvus mastytojas. Ne koks radikalas.

    Visa kita, deja, per ilgos temos bloginei diskusijai, ypac jei norint pradet kvestionuot nusistovejusias institucijas ir kategorijas (taip pat ir mastymo), kuo as laiks nuo laiko mielai uzsiimu. Pvz, “visuomene garantuoja” man noretus keist i “visuomene garantuojasi”, o abstrakti “valdzia” man demokratinese salyse apskritai tuscias zodis, as preferinciau arba keist ji konkreciu instituciju pavadinimais arba, jei kalbam apie abstrakcijas, sakyt savi-valda, demokratine savi-valda, self-government. Ir tada kalbetume taip: visuomene, per savo savi-valdos institucijas ir kitus mechanizmus, sau - laisvais demokratiniais susitarimais - garantuojasi ta ta ir kita, bet ne sita bei kita.

    Pvz, nuo ekonomikos svyravimu galim civilizuotai draustis draudimu, ka ne viena civilizuota visuomene sekmingai ir daro. Yra ir daugiau civilizuotu instrumentu svelnint svyravimu kampus. Apie tai gal ir reiktu pasikalbet. Nes manes asmeniskai pasakymai krizes mazdaug “kentekit, kentekit, GALBUT tuoj viskas praeis…” netenkina. Kas man is to, kad kai man ir mano kaimynui krize, ateina teisingumo ministras ir man pasako, kad dabar vyksta naturali korekcija ir po jos manes galbut nebeliks (jei taip, pvz, panores “nematoma ranka”)? Kol tai ivyks, as turiu laukt ir kentet. Noris kazko konstruktyvesnio.

  24.   anarchistas rašo:

    Noris kažko konstruktyvesnio? Man irgi.

    Manau situacija Lietuvoje palanki radikalesnėms (nei dabar vykdomos administracinės) reformoms.

    Laikas į viešąją erdvę sugrąžinti kažkada LLRI inicijuotą, bet vėliau nugesusią diskusiją apie pelno ir pajamų mokesčių panaikinimą. Dabar tam kaip reta tinkamas metas, manau reikia tai ir padaryti.

    Savo bloge kol kas paklausiau skaitytojų, kokie argumentai prieš. Į patį pirmą kontrolinį klausimą (pacituotą žemiau), manau sugebėjau atsakyti net “buhalteriškai”.

    Kitaip sakant, siūlai nurėžti 1/3 biudžeto pajamų. Bet čia lengviausia dalis. Gal pirmiau reiktų pasiūlyti būdą, kaip tokiu pat dydžiu sumažinti biudžeto išlaidas. Bet realistiškai.

    http://anarchistas.lt/2009/10/pelno-pajamu-mokesciu-klausimas/

    Jei kam įdomu, ateikite ir kritikuokite. Jeigu rimtų kontraargumentų neišgirsiu, ketinu kviesti bendraminčius koordinuotai sprendimų iš valdžios PAREIKALAVIMO kampanijai.

  25.   www.nematomaranka.lt - 123 rašo:

    Tadai,

    siūlau paskaityti penkiolikos metų senumo Krugmano straipsnius (tada jis rašė kaip rimtas ekonomistas, konstruktyviai kritikuodavo ir kairiuosius, ir dešiniuosius). Šiuo metu jis įsisuko į radikalųjį demokratų partijos sparną ir primena Algirdą Paleckį ir nė iš tolo nebeprimena senojo gerojo Krugmano.

  26.   Tadas rašo:

    Nematoma ranka,

    Kalbedamas i ta pati beprasmiska Jusu palaikoma ritma siulau teikt Paleckio kandidatura i Nobeli.

    Beje, tas Slate rasinys beveik 15 m. senumo.

    Krugmanas, kiek as speju siandien ji skaityt, Amerikos kairiuosius kritikuoja ir siandien. Ji kartu su Stiglitzu kaip rimciausius kritikus Obama net buvo atskirai vakarienes pasikvietes. Kad pamegint isiklausyt giliau ir suprast, ka negerai daro.

    Del visa ko imetu lygiai 15 m. senumo Krugmano rasini idomia tema:

    Competitiveness: A Dangerous Obsession

    Paul Krugman
    March/April 1994

    http://www.foreignaffairs.com/articles/49684/paul-krugman/competitiveness-a-dangerous-obsession

  27.   Tadas rašo:

    Anarchiste,

    Jusu pasiulyme nematau nieko konstruktyvaus. Lygiai taip pat “konstruktyviai” galetumet pasiulyt sugrazint vergove. Irgi sutaupytume.

    Yra valstybiu su nuliniais mokesciais. Tik lietuviai is Lietuvos kazkodel ne i jas bega, o i normalias issivysciusas salis su padoriais ir uz Lietuva didesnias mokesciais, ir dar daugiau - su efektyvesniu ju surinkimu ir administravimu. Orientuokimes i rimtus ir civilizuotus konkurentus, o ne bluda.

    Gal pabaigai dar priminsiu, kad Lietuvoje auksciausia valdzia ir sios valstybes steigejas ir islaikytojas esat Jus kartu su savo bendrapilieciais. Taigi profilaktiniais tikslais rekomenduotina dazniau ziuret i veidrodi. Sekmes.

  28.   www.nematomaranka.lt - 123 rašo:

    Tadai,

    Competitiveness straipsnis yra puikus senojo Krugmano pavyzdys. Pries 15 metų jis demokratus kritikuodavo daugiausia iš centristinių pozicijų, o dabar - iš ultrakairiųjų, todel nobelistas Obama ji ir pasikviete dabar kartu pavalgyti.

    Paleckis galėtų kitais metais gauti Nobelio taikos premiją už būsimus nuopelnus, jei tik norvegams labiau rūpėtų Lietuvos problemos. :-)

    Pats Krugmanas 2005 metais pranašiskai pripazino, kad JAV yra nekilnojamo turto burbulas, tuo prisidėdamas prie austru teorijos prognozių. Ir kiti ekonomistai panaudodami austrų teorijas atspėjo dabartinę krizę, apie tai rašiau čia:
    http://www.nematomaranka.lt/2009/09/austru-ekonomikos-mokyklos-nepazanga-ir.html

  29.   Tadas rašo:

    Nematoma ranka,

    Jei Obama su Summersu ir Sunsteinu komandoje Jums ultrakairieji, tai belieka palinket (tolesniu) saldziu sapnu, nes cia toliau tikrai nelabai apie ka yra kalbetis.

  30.   www.nematomaranka.lt - 123 rašo:

    Tadai,

    as rasiau kad Krugmanas kritikavo kairiuosius Obamą ir Summersą (Summersas gal net ir kairysis centristas) is ultrakairiųjų pozocijų. Jei skaitote neatidziai, tai tikrai nera apie ka kalbetis.

  31.   Tadas rašo:

    Nematoma ranka,

    Issiskirsiu palinkedamas Jums prie progos is naujo perskaityt bent mokyklinius istorijos vadovelius. Gal maziau nieku tauksit bent apie “ultrakaire”.

  32.   www.nematomaranka.lt - 123 rašo:

    Tadai,

    skirtingai negu raso aukstosios partines mokyklos istorijos vadoveliai, amerikoje komunistu kuriems galima taikyti lietuviska ultrakairiuju savoka nera, todel ten ultrakairiaisiais laikomi bicai normalesni uz Palecki…

  33.   anarchistas rašo:

    Diskusija apie ultrakairę yra tolesnis nusivažiavimas takeliu Krugmanas > ultra(kas?)

    Išties labiau diskutuotina buvo Tado “jei norint pradet kvestionuot nusistovejusias institucijas ir kategorijas”.

    “Nusistovėjusios” institucijos ir “kategorijos” turi būti kvestionuojamos, o “kairė-nekairė” išties yra nekriterijus.

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