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Maisto kainų augimas, ekonominė krizė ir ekonomikos gaivinimo planai

Būdamas teisingumo ministru neturiu galimybės detaliai sekti visas ekonomines naujienas ir vertinti giluminius jas lemiančius veiksnius. Tačiau maisto kainų pokyčiai pasaulyje ir (dažnai netgi dar labiau) Lietuvoje, skatina išsakyti, kaip matau šią situaciją.

Jau ne kartą esu sakęs, kad nesu toks optimistas, kaip daugelis nūdienos analitikų, dėl „recesijos pabaigos”, „dvigubo dugno išvengimo”, „geresnių perspektyvų ekonomikoje” ar panašiai įvardinamos šviesios ateities.

Žinau, kad galime daug padaryti, kad ekonominė padėtis būtų geresnė, tačiau tarptautinė (bent Vakarų) konjunktūra nėra tai, kas mus ištrauks tarsi garvežys. Reikia labai dirbti, keistis patiems, kad, netgi, kai kiti aplinkui skendės problemose, galėtume gerinti savo (Lietuvos) padėtį.

Taigi, nuo pradžių. Šiandieninė ekonominė krizė yra kilusi dėl ilgalaikės labai išaugusios pinigų pasiūlos per centrinius bankus, o vėliau ir finansinius instrumentus - tiek komercinių bankų pinigų multiplikatorių, tiek kitus.

Bandymas gaivinti ekonomiką dar krizės aušroje ar priešaušryje daugelyje valstybių buvo siejamas su dar didesniu pinigų masės didinimu. Tai buvo visiškai klaidingi žingsniai, kurie žmonėms matomus krizės padarinius tik kiek nutolino, tačiau labai pagilino ir situaciją tik blogino. Kad nesusilaukčiau replikų, kad be pigu gudriu būti po laiko, duodu nuorodą į savo komentarą, kurį rašiau 2007 - 2008 metų sandūroje.

Daugelyje valstybių tokia politika tebesitęsia iki šiol (tik pažiūrėkime į TVF veiksmus gelbėjant neefektyvias vyriausybes ar europinį Graikijos gelbėjimo planą…).

Išimtis yra tik kai kurios valstybės. Baltijos šalys iš karto  buvo ta išimtis. Dabar prie jų prisijungia vis daugiau kitų - kas iš reikalo (Graikija), kas dėl susivokimo ir valdžios pasikeitimo (Jungtinė Karalystė, Čekija, Slovakija). Įdomu stebėti, kaip dėl ekonominės politikos nesutaria dešinioji JK ir kairioji JAV vyriausybės.

Lietuvoje, nors ir pasirinktas taupymo, diržų veržimo variantas, netrūksta ir tokio ekonomikos skatinimo, kuris įlieja daugiau pinigų į ekonomiką per ES paramą ir panašius mechanizmus. Nesakau, kad tokiais metodais nereikia lieti pinigų į Lietuvos ekonomiką šiandien, tačiau faktas, kad tai didina pinigų masę (net pripažįstant, kad kiti veiksniai pinigų masę mažina).

Pinigų masės didėjimą galima pajusti per palūkanų normas. Jos šiandien neįtikėtinai mažos. Jei pinigų masė būtų dirbtinai nedidinama, pagal ekonominių krizių dinamiką dėl ekonominių sunkumų versle ir šeimose, skolinimosi kaina turėtų būti išaugusi.

Infliacija, t.y. pinigų masės didinimas, neišvengiamai turi atsispindėti kainų indekso pakitime, t.y. augančiomis kainomis (kitaip tariant tuo, kas liaudyje, žiniasklaidoje ir didžiosios dalies ekonomikos komentatorių supaprastintai ir yra vadinama infliacija).

Tačiau bendras kainų pokytis paprastai pasireiškia ne bendru kainų kilimu, o, priklausomai nuo tam tikrų aplinkybių - pokyčiais tam tikrose srityse. Žvilgtelkim į tas sritis.

Nekilnojamojo turto kainos šiandien negali smarkiai augti, nes žmonės patiria ekonominių sunkumų, neįžiūri spekuliacinės naudos iš nekilnojamojo turto turėjimo.

Daugelio ilgalaikio vartojimo prekių kainos negali augti dėl to, kad nuo jų vartojimo žmonės gali susilaikyti, konkurencija yra didžiulė. Atitinkama ir žaliavų kainos dinamika šioms prekėms.

Tačiau yra dvi prekių grupės, kuriose dinamika yra ryškiai kita.

Pirma, tai žaliavos, kurios tinkamos kaip forma vertei išlaikyti, kitaip tariant, savotiškas pinigų pakaitalas. Čia neabejotinai išsiskiria auksas, kuris, kaip žinia, ilgą laiką buvo, o de facto kažkiek ir tebėra tikrieji pinigai. Galima sakyti ir kitaip - aukso kaina lieka kokia buvusi, o visos valiutos jo atžvilgiu nuvertėja.

Kitos prekės, kurių kaina gali augti, yra tai, kas mums neišvengiama - maistas. Prabangaus maisto kaina veikiama panašių veiksnių kaip ir ilgalaikio vartojimo prekių (rūbų, televizorių ir pan.), nes jo galima ir atsisakyti.

Tačiau elementarus maistas - grūdai (miltai, duona), pienas (ir jo produktai), mėsa - yra tai, ką vartotojai bet kokiu atveju perka (net jei neperka naujų rūbų ar namų).

Štai ir pynė veiksnių, paaiškinančių kas vyksta - kuo susijusi ekonomikos krizė, ekonomikų gaivinimo planai ir būtiniausių maisto prekių brangimas.

Ši istorija turi dar vieną - moralinę - pamoką.

Prisiminkime, kas buvo didžiausi ekonomikos gelbėjimo planų laimėtojai. Tai besiplečiantys centriniai bankai, nebankrutuojančios susimovusios finansinės institucijos, nuo bankroto gelbėjami didieji verslai.

Kas yra tie, kas moka viso to kainą - tai grikių ir duonos valgytojai.

Nežinau, ar mes kada išmoksime šias pamokas… Nesu didelis optimistas, nes progų pasimokyti ir iš knygų, ir iš praktikos jau turėjome daug.

Tačiau pasimokyti verta bent šįkart, kad nei mes šioje situacijoje, nei mūsų vaikai tose situacijose kurios bus, nesielgtų kaip amoralūs kvailiai.

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komentarai (612) | “Maisto kainų augimas, ekonominė krizė ir ekonomikos gaivinimo planai”

  1.   123-NematomaRanka.lt rašo:

    Viskas yra atvirkščiai - šiandieninė krizė kilo ne dėl išaugusios pinigų pasiūlos per centrinius bankus, o dėl nepakankamos pinigų pasiūlos. Centriniai bankai apgavo žmones - pažadėjo, kad spausdins tiek pinigų, kad vidutinis kainų lygis kiltų po du procentus per metus - nei daugiau, nei mažiau. Tuo tarpu per krizę pinigų pritrūko, kainos nustojo kilti po 2 procentus per metus, įsigalėjo per mažos negu anksčiau buvo tikimasi infliacijos lūkesčiai, o darbo ir paskolų rinkos vis dar neprisitaikė prie mažo pinigų kiekio.

    Grikiai ir rugiai yra ciklinė prekė, kai derlius geras - atpinga, kai blogas - pabrangsta. Nejaugi dėl blogo grikių derliaus Rusijoje kaltinate monetarinę politiką?

  2.   Remigijus Šimašius rašo:

    Gerbiama Nematoma ranka,

    Krizė tuo ir pasižymi, kad visiems pinigų trūksta. Vienintelis būdas iš krizės išeiti - pertvarkyti savo gamybą ir vartojimą taip, kad nebetrūktų. Jeigu bus pasiūloma tiek pinigų, kad gamybos ir vartojimo pertvarkyti a la nebereikės, tai liks galioti krizės priežastys - investavimas ne ten, kur yra tenkinama reali paklausa. Dar blogiau - ne tik liks galioti, bet ir toliau bus tęsiamas klaidingų verslo ir vartojimų sprendimų realizavimas, toliau priimami blogi sprendimai. Žodžiu, viskas tik blogės.

    Dėl netinkamo investavimo (kuris atsiranda bumo metu) sistemiškai kalta irgi monetarinė politika (asmeniškai kalti tie, kas priėmė verslo sprendimus, žinoma), nes ji su kuria iliuziją, kad ir paklausa yra didesnė nei reali, kad kapitalinių gėrybių yra daugiau nei iš tikrųjų yra.

    Jeigu jau visiškai paprastai tai paaiškinti - bumas ekonomikoje yra tada, kad statoma 10 namų, nors plytų ir kitų medžiagų turima tik penkiems (statoma todėl, kad buvo parūpinta daugiau pinigų, kurie sudarė įspūdį, kad nupirksi daugiau plytų).

    Nuosmukis prasideda tada, kai suprantama, kad visų namų neužbaigsi (nes paskui pinigų masės padidėjimą brangsta plytos ir paaiškėja, kad net su padidėjusiais pinigais plytų dešimčiai namų nenupirksi), todėl dalis statybų užšaldoma.

    Ekonomikos gaivinimo planas monetarinėmis priemonėmis yra daugiau pinigų pagaminimas, kad eitum į rinką ir visgi nusipirktum dar plytų (kurių, kaip žinia, nėra).

    O ekonomikos atsigavimas yra tada, kai suvokiama, kad penkis pradėtus namus reikia nugriauti, o jų plytas panaudoti likusiems penkiems užbaigti.

    Taigi, pinigų politika serliui įtakos neturi (nors pasėlių plotams - galbūt), tačiau kitiems ekonomikos veiksniams - taip.

    Beje, savo komentare neminėjau nei derliaus, nei Azijos vartojimo (kinai suvalgo dvigubai daugiau kalorijų žmogui šiandien nei prieš du dešimtmečius), nes šie veiksniai, kaip ir jų įtaka, akivaizdūs ir jų daugelis sveiko proto žmonių neginčija.

    Mano akcentuojamus gi veiksnius, deja, dažnai ignoruoja ar net ginčija netgi sveiko proto žmonės ;)

  3.   123-NematomaRanka.lt rašo:

    Ačiū už atsakyma.
    Visų pirma, aš griežtai pasisakau už neutralią monetarinę politiką, t.y. už tokią, kuri nei dirbtinai skatina, nei dirbtinai žlugdo ekonomiką. Neutrali monetarinė politika turi būti paremta griežta taisykle, prie kurios prisitaiko žmonės, sudarydami savo ilgalaikes sutartis (darbo, paskolų ir t.t.). Didžiosiose pasaulio valstybėse pasaulio valstybėse prieš krizę ši taisyklė buvo labai aiški - nuolatinė vidutinio kainų lygio kilimo tendencija dviejais procentais per metus. Papildomą pinigų spausdinimą šiuo metu reikėtų laikyti ne dirbtiniu ekonomikos skatinimu, bet monarinės politikos grąžinimu į neutralią būseną, tam, kad nebūtų pažeisti teisėti ekonomikos dalyvių lūkesčiai.

    Jūsų atsakyme yra suplakami du dalykai - reali krizė, kilusi dėl investavimo į nekilnojamą turtą ar Graikijos valstybės obligacijas klaidų, ir krizė, kilusi dėl netikėtai sugriežtintos monetarinės politikos.

    JAV reali krizė baigėsi 2007 pab. - 2008 pr., kai beveik visiškai sustojo būsto statybos ir su tuo susijęs resursų švaistymas (ne paslaptis, kad 2006-07 m. JAV monetarinė politika iš neutralios padėties perėjo į dirbtinį skatinimą ir paskolų bumas virš normos pakėlė infliacija ir taip vieneriais metais prailgino JAV NT burbulo egzistavimą).

    Tuo tarpu monetarinės politikos klaidos 2008m.-2010m. sukėlė masinę baimę, kad kainos nebekils 2 proc. per metus. Dėl to sumažėjo ekonominė veikla beveik visuose sektoriuose, įskaitant ir tuos, kuriuose resursai panaudojami itin efektyviai. JAV tuo pasinaudojo socialistai, prastumdami sveikatos apsaugos reformą ir biudžeto išlaidų didinimą, taip pat tuo pasinaudojo susimovę bankai, gavę lengvatines sąlygas.

    Jūs klystate, teigdamas, kad palūkanos šiandien mažos dėl didelio pinigų masės didėjimo. Palūkanos atspindi lūkesčius dėl pinigų spausdinimo ateityje. Ten, kur pinigų masė didėja itin lėtai (pvz. Japonija), palūkanos yra arti nulio. Ten, kur visi žino, kad pinigų bus spausdinama daug, (pvz. Rusija, Zimbabvė), palūkanos būna labai didelės. Tas pats ir Lietuvoje - prieš du metus rinkos galvojo, kad Lietuvoje valdžia spausdins per daug pinigų, VILIBORas pakilo iki 10%. Kai valdžia visus įtikino, kad dirbtinio pinigų masės didinimo nebus, VILIBORas sumažėjo.

    Sprogus NT burbului, kai paaiškėjo, kad investicijos į nekilnojamą turtą nėra perspektyvios, palūkanų mažėjimas yra natūralus reiškinys. Sumažėjo paskolų paklausa - juk niekas nebenori skolintis NT projektams, o naujų perspektyvių projektų kituose sektoriuose dar kol kas trūksta. Kai atsiras nauji projektai, palūkanos pakils.

    Apie neutralią monetarinę politiką viską gerai parašė Hayek’as:
    http://hayekcenter.org/?p=1240

  4.   Giedrius rašo:

    “Apie neutralią monetarinę politiką viską gerai parašė Hayek’as:
    http://hayekcenter.org/?p=1240

    Pirmiausia nuorodoje rašliava ne Hayek’o, o Horwitz’o; antra - perskaičius tokį nonsensą kaip “deflationary death spiral” nėra ko bandyti refutinti kitus ten surašytus mažiau nuvalkiotus nonsensus.

  5.   Giedrius rašo:

    Btw, prisiminiau, kad visai neseniai Robert Murphy buvo (eilinį kartą) ant pirštų surodęs klaidas monetaristų (tame tarpe nematomosrankos mėgiamo Sumner’io) rekomendacijose: http://mises.org/daily/4353

  6.   123-NematomaRanka.lt rašo:

    Giedriau, Horwitz’o galite neskaityti, jei nepatinka. Bet nepatingėkite įsigilinti į dvi pateiktas Hayek’o citatas.

  7.   anarchistas rašo:

    Pinigai ir teisingumas neatskiriamai susiję. Tų teisingumo aspektų ignoravimas yra gal didžiausia dabartinės civilizacijos bėda.

    123 centrinė bankininkystė: “Neutrali monetarinė politika turi būti paremta griežta taisykle, prie kurios prisitaiko žmonės, sudarydami savo ilgalaikes sutartis”.

    Super! O kam tuomet išvis reikalingi centriniai bankai?
    (Kad pasikeitus aplinkybėms grupė objektyvių, nešališkų, nesuinteresuotų ir nekorumpuotų c’bankininkų galėtų keisti “griežtas taisykles”)

    Kodėl 2% kainų augimas per metus, o ne 3% arba 1%?
    (… a čia mes pagal aplinkybes nuspręsim…)

    Centrinis planavimas?
    (… ui neklauskit…, reikia, be mūsų neapsieisit, visur taip…)

    Anekdotas #1: “Tuo tarpu monetarinės politikos klaidos 2008m.-2010m. sukėlė masinę baimę, kad kainos nebekils 2 proc. per metus.

    Anekdotas #2: “prieš du metus rinkos galvojo, kad Lietuvoje valdžia spausdins per daug pinigų, VILIBORas pakilo iki 10%. Kai valdžia visus įtikino, kad dirbtinio pinigų masės didinimo nebus, VILIBORas sumažėjo”
    :)))

    Real politics. Pinigai yra kreditas. Kredito parametrai - pelnas ir rizika. Pelnas mūsų, rizika jūsų.

    Nepatinka?
    Galite ginčytis - cb, saugumas, teisingumas, “nacionalinio intereso” apibrėžimas mūsų, rizika jūsų.

    Sakote “per daug pinigų”?
    Juokaujate, kiek galėjome, tiek paėmėm, o jei ko dar nepaėmėm - atidirbsite.

    Anekdotas: “Išimtis yra tik kai kurios valstybės. Baltijos šalys iš karto buvo ta išimtis. Dabar prie jų prisijungia vis daugiau kitų”.
    :(((


    Savo laiku su Giedriumi normaliai padiskutavome susitarimų laisvės tema. Nuo jos prasideda ir į ją remiasi piniginiai santykiai. Deja, sąvoka “susitarimų laisvė” dabar skamba tik kaip kažkos senas ir banalus anekdotas.

  8.   123-NematomaRanka.lt rašo:

    Dar dėl maisto kainų. Joms didžiausią įtaką daro derlingumo svyravimai, bei besikeičiantys vartojimo įpročiai. Kažkiek vos vos maisto kainas padidina ir monetarinė politika, tačiau tai yra teigiamas dalykas, nes per griežtos monetarinės politikos pakeitimas neutralia vidutines darbuotojų pajamas padidina labiau nei maisto kainas.

  9.   ruta rašo:

    Pritariu Remigijui, o daugeliui komentatorių, net ir žymių ” ekonomistų” tinka citata: “It is no crime to be ignorant of economics, which is, after all, a specialized discipline and one that most people consider to be a ‘dismal science.’ But it is totally irresponsible to have a loud and vociferous opinion on economic subjects while remaining in this state of ignorance.” -Murray N. Rothbard

  10.   123-NematomaRanka.lt rašo:

    Rūta, manau kad visi čia diskutuojantys yra puikiai susipažinę su Rothardo mintimis, tik vieni jas priima kaip dogmą, o kiti stengiasi vertinti jas objektyviai. Dogmatiškas požiūris sako, kad valdžia sugeba padaryti tik vieno pobūdžio klaidą - prispausdinti per daug pinigų, ir todėl galvojama, kad kuo mažiau bus pinigų, tuo geriau ekonomikai. O iš tikro valdžia daro ir kitokias klaidas - kartais pinigų atspausdina gerokai mažiau nei žadėjo ir visi rinkos dalyviai tikėjosi (aišku, tokio pobūdžio klaidos dėl suprantamų priežasčių būna gerokai retesnės, tačiau JAV šiuo metu būtent taip ir yra atsitikę). Įsivaizduokite, jei vieną rytą Lietuvoje valdžia staiga pakeistų žaidimo taisykles ir nustatytų, kad vienas euras yra lygus dviems litams - ar apsidžiaugtumėte?

  11.   anarchistas rašo:

    Mano sarkazmas gal ir nusipelno kontrasarkazmo. Bet

    1) dabartinė pasaulio monetarinė tvarka išties yra frakcinių-rezervinių bankų kartelių rentų sistema, generuojanti “laisvą” finansinį kapitalą,

    2) tas laisvas finansinis kapitalas išties gali iškreipti rinkas ir kainas ir tai nuolatos vyksta; tai paliečia ir maisto rinkas,

    3) “tikri” centinių bankų ekonomistai dvejinasi (asmenybės skilimas) kalbėdami, viena vertus apie “griežtas taisykles” (lūkesčių formavimas) ir realias savo galimybes (finansų rinkų nesuvaldome, finansinių burbulų dar nesuprantame, kaip atskirti likvidumo problemas nuo nemokumo gerai nežinome),

    4) cacos austrų ekonomikos šalininkai irgi dvejinasi, viena puse burnos kritiškai pasisakydami “popierinių nepadengtų” pinigų atžvilgiu, o kita “Išimtis yra tik kai kurios valstybės. Baltijos šalys iš karto buvo ta išimtis”.

    Valiutos valdyba ir Lietuvoje pastaruoju metu vykdyta pinigų politika yra klaikus ekonominis mišrūnas benkartas, totalinis fiasco. Tai reikia pripažinti ir kažką su tuo daryti. Blogiausia, ką padaryti galime - įsivesti eurą. Link to ir einame.

  12.   Giedrius rašo:

    Kažkodėl nuo vakar mano komentaras laukia patvirtinimo, spėju dėl per daug nuorodų. Tikiuosi kada nors sulauks :)

  13.   Jūratė rašo:

    Dėkui už straipsnį!
    Džiugu, kad tarp valdžios žmonių yra ne tik blaiviai mąstančių, bet ir blaiviai viešai kalbančių.

  14.   Nyazoff rašo:

    Mano komentaras “Rothbard’o pasekėjams teks prisiminti neigiamų skaičių aritmetikos dėsnius” yra čia:
    http://www.nematomaranka.lt/2010/09/rothbardo-pasekejams-teks-prisiminti.html

  15.   Valentinas rašo:

    Gerbiamas Šimašius rašo:
    “O ekonomikos atsigavimas yra tada, kai suvokiama, kad penkis pradėtus namus reikia nugriauti, o jų plytas panaudoti likusiems penkiems užbaigti.”
    Kaip tikras liberalas Šimašius abejingai vertina tą faktą, kad nugriauti penkis pradėtus namus praktikoje reiškia išaugusį nedarbą. Jei jis būtų Keinso pasekėjas ir pavyzdžiui Krugmano gerbėjas, tai jis žinotų, kad tik pinigų masės didinimas, t.y. paklausos palaikymas yra būdas atstatyti ekonomiką, išsaugoti mažą nedarbą ir finale turėti augimą (scenarijus, kuris įvyko JAV prieš ir po WWII). Pagrindinis ekonominės politikos uždavinys yra išlaikyti darbo vietas. Nugriauti penkis namus, tai reiškia sumažinti darbo jėgos kokybę, motyvaciją. Jaunimas, baigęs mokslus neįsidarbina, atitinkamai degraduoja profesiniai sugebėjimai, atitinkamai slopsta ateities perspektyvos. Bet liberalui Šimašiui į visa tai dzin, kaip ir tai, kad jo liberalus kolega Steponavičius liberaliai naikina aukštąjį mokslą ir kultūrą ir taip iš savo pusės naikina perspektyvą.
    p.s. Lietuvoje penki nugriauti namai dar reiškia ir emigraciją.

  16.   arunas rašo:

    laba diena ,

    maisto kaina kyla , nes toje kainoje įkalkuliuota ne tik jo gamintojų atlygis ir pelnas, bet ir neišpasakytai didelis “valstybės apetitas”. dirbančiųjų mažėja, o valstybės noras gauti daugiau pinigų -ne , todėl kaina ir kyla, viskas labai paprasta ir elementaru………….

    krizė Lietuvoje buvo kai nedarbas buvo mažiau 3% , DU augo kartais , o darbo našumas procentasi , NT sritis “ištraukė” dirbančiuosius iš kitų ekonomikos sektorių .tai buvo priežastys kodėl ne tik dalinai buvo sunaikintas kapitalas, kuris generavo pinigų srautus , bet ir šalies ekonomika neteko konkurencingumo. o dabar per skausmą ir nemokšiškumą bandome gįžti prie ekonomikos pagrindų.
    krizės priežastys nepašalintos , pasekmės atidėtos ateičiai. ir kuo toliau nusikels , tuo skaudesni bus padariniai….

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    kadangi apie normalią valstybę nėra ko kalbėti, pakalbėkim apie naujų darbo vietų kūrimą. tam reikalui yra du rezervai:
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    -antra, valstybės valdomas turtas. normalūs dividendai iš šio turto yra iš “misija neįmanoma ” srities, na o pardavimas gal ir pagelbės kažkiek.

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