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Tai visgi ar vertėjo(-a) Lietuvai skolintis iš TVF?

Diskusija dėl skolinimosi iš Tarptautinio valiutos fondo (TVF) iškyla vis iš naujo ir iš naujo. Manau, kad ji aktuali, tad išsakysiu ir savo apibendrinimus bei nuomonę.

Skolinimosi iš TVF šalininkai teisingai pabrėžia, kad iš TVF skolintumės daug (maždaug 7 procentiniais palūkanų punktais!) pigiau nei šiandien.

Be to, teisingai pastebima, kad tokiu būdu finansai nebūtų atitraukiami iš Lietuvos komercinių bankų, o tai reikštų, jog yra daugiau prielaidų (deja, tik prielaidų…), kad šios sumos būtų skolinamos verslui.

Skolinimosi iš TVF priešininkai teigia, kad taip prarastume dalį suvereniteto, nes tektų vykdyti TVF reikalavimus. Tikrai yra dalis tiesos, nes šalia daugybės pagrįstų reikalavimų mažinti išlaidas dievai (ar velniai) žino, ko dar būtų pareikalauta. Ypač tai galioja po TVF sprendimo paskolinti Latvijai, kuriuo pats TVF, kaip suprantu, nebėra sužavėtas.

Aš pridurčiau, kad skolintis iš TVF nereikia todėl, kad tiesiog reikia sutvarkyti viešuosius finansus taip, kad valstybės išlaidos ir skolinimosi poreikiai sumažėtų rimčiau nei šiandien. Tuomet pats TVF mums tiesiog nebeskolintų dėl to, kad esame neproblemiški.

Susumuojant, skolintis iš TVF ko gero reikėjo beveik prieš metus, nes išlaidų mažinimas, deja, nebuvo toks, koks turėjo būti. Tačiau didesnė klaida yra ne tai, kad nesiskolinta iš TVF, o tai, kad valdžia vis dar išleidžia per daug (viskam, įskaitant ir socialines išmokas bei pensijas).

Šiandien gi skolintis iš TVF tikrai nereikia, nes Vyriausybė (ir, be abejo Seimas, kurio valia tai daryti kartais, deja, kelia abejonių) gali pasirinkti pirmą geriausią variantą - geriau tvarkytis su savo finansais.

Be to, būdus kaip šiandien tvarkytis su viešaisiais finansais turėtų pasirinkti pati Lietuva. Tikiuosi, kad ir niekieno neverčiami galėsime/išdrįsime vykdyti sistemines reformas.

Taip pat viliuosi, kad be TVF patarimų privalomumo bus mažiau noro vykdyti kitą tradicinį jų valdžios finansų subalansavimo receptą - mokesčių didinimą, arba kitus galimus nepagrįstus TVF reikalavimus.

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komentarai (253) | “Tai visgi ar vertėjo(-a) Lietuvai skolintis iš TVF?”

  1.   Julita rašo:

    o tai ką daryt?

  2.   dainys rašo:

    aš matau keletą sričių, kur valstybė galėtų sutaupyti valdyme - uždrausti dvigubas pareigas, kaip pvz. seimo narys ir ministras. Taip pat - jei jau žmogus balotiravosi ir buvo išrinktas į seimą ir po to sumąstė balotiruotis pvz. į europarlamentą - asmeninėmis lėšomis padengia pakartotinių rinkimų išlaidas ir sumoka netesybas, nes seimo nario darbas - terminuota 4 metų sutartis ir negali būti jokių kalbų apie išeitines išmokas.

  3.   ilgius rašo:

    linkiu koalicijos liberaliam sparnui raumens formuluojant ir įgyvendinant išlaidas balansuojančias reformas, taip pat gerai iškomunikuojant prieš daranrt refomą ir padarius. sėkmės!

  4.   kostia rašo:

    ponas Simasiau, ne tik kad reikia, bet ir butina skolinitis. Po Kaledu bus pzd. Ar ten Vyriausybeje jau taip ir visi atitruke nuo realybes ?

  5.   www.nematomaranka.lt - 123 rašo:

    Pigus skolinimasis is TVF yra iliuzija. Na ir kas, kad Latvija dali pinigu “pigiai” pasiskolino is TVF. Likusius pinigus Latvija priversta skolintis rinkoje uz zymiai didesnes palukanas nei Lietuva.

  6.   anarchistas rašo:

    Geriausias variantas - vykdyti sistemines reformas, ir jeigu tik yra galimybė, finansuoti jas pigesniais TVF kreditais.

    Jeigu TVF kreditai susaistomi velnias žino kokias reikalavimais - tuomet finansuoti jas savarankiškai.

    Blogiausias, bet kol kas labiausiai realistiškas scenarijus - nevykdant nei rimtų sisteminių, nei teisingumo reformų, ignoruojant defliacinės krizės logiką, įsikibus į valiutų valdybą nusivažiuoti iki Argentinos tipo bankroto.

    Noriu, kad mano pozicija būtų aiški - pasisakau už reformas ir valiutų valdybos išsaugojimą. Tačiau akivaizdu, kad rimtos reformos nevyksta, ir nėra jokių požymių, kad jos nors būtų planuojamos.

    Viešųjų finansų proporcingas apkarpymas nėra reforma. Vyriausybės užmojai suvaldyti krizę kaišant skyles garantijomis, ar kaip mačiau kažkuriame iš valdžios PR’o tekstų “naudojant išvestinius finansinius instrumentus” apskritai yra grubus savo galių išplėtimas, bandant socializuoti riziką.

    Pasirinkta defliacinė strategija išties būtų labai teisingas sprendimas, jeigu būtų nuosekli. Bet tokia nėra. Defliacija yra kredito susitraukimas, dalį rinkos dalyvių vedantis į bankrotą. Procesas būtų geras ir sveikas, jeigu būtų TEISINGAS.

    Dalis bankų turi bankrutuoti, o ne būti ramstomi visuomenės sąskaita.
    Dalis žmonių irgi turi bankrutuoti, o ne vardan bankų interesų būti šantažuojami šimtaprocentiniu išieškojimu ir (esant dabartiniams išieškojimų metodams) desocializacija.
    Nejau neakivaizdu?

    Jau nekalbu apie kokias radikalesnes mokesčių reformas.

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